As of April 2025, Bitcoin hovers around the $80,000 mark—a price point that feels less like a peak and more like a pause. Despite accelerating global money supply growth, the market hasn’t yet erupted into a full-blown rally. Why? Because monetary momentum operates on a delay—typically taking about two months to ripple through financial markets. With global liquidity picking up in February 2025, the real surge for Bitcoin could arrive by late April or early May, potentially pushing it past $90,000 and even toward six figures.
While short-term headwinds like geopolitical tensions, policy uncertainty, and recession fears have cast a shadow over risk assets, historical patterns and macroeconomic indicators suggest a powerful bull run may still be ahead. Let’s explore how global liquidity drives Bitcoin’s price, why it’s stalled now—and what could ignite the next breakout.
How Does Money Supply Fuel Bitcoin’s Rise?
Global liquidity is the lifeblood of financial markets. It refers to the total amount of money circulating in economies worldwide—including cash, bank deposits, and highly liquid assets. As of 2025, this figure stands at an estimated $108 trillion, covering over 80 countries, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
But what matters most isn’t just the size of the money pool—it’s the speed at which it grows. When central banks ease monetary policy or governments inject stimulus, new money floods the system. Investors then seek higher returns beyond low-yielding savings or bonds, turning to assets like stocks, real estate—and Bitcoin.
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A key indicator tracking this trend is the Global Liquidity Index, which measures the momentum of worldwide monetary expansion. After hitting a low in late 2022, the index is projected to peak around September 2025—historically aligning with strong performance in high-growth assets like cryptocurrencies.
Research shows a clear correlation: for every one percentage point increase in global money supply growth, Bitcoin tends to respond with significant upward movement—though not immediately. There's usually a 60-day lag between monetary acceleration and price reaction. Since global liquidity began gaining speed in February 2025, the market is now entering the window where Bitcoin could finally catch fire.
Looking back:
- In 2017, rapid monetary expansion preceded Bitcoin’s surge from $1,000 to nearly $20,000.
- In 2021, pandemic-era stimulus packages supercharged liquidity, sending Bitcoin from $10,000 to an all-time high of $69,000.
- Conversely, in 2022, tightening monetary policies led to collapsing liquidity—and Bitcoin dropped below $16,000.
In both 2017 and 2021, annual money supply growth nearly doubled during bull phases. Today’s growth rate is modest by comparison but accelerating—mirroring conditions seen just before previous rallies.
Why Hasn’t Bitcoin Moved Yet in 2025?
Despite a $2 trillion increase in global money supply—from $106 trillion in 2024 to $108 trillion in 2025—Bitcoin remains stuck near $80,000. The answer lies in timing and sentiment.
U.S. data reveals that early 2025 saw sluggish monetary growth. It wasn’t until February that expansion began to accelerate. Given the typical two-month transmission lag, the impact should start showing by late April or early May. Think of it like heating water: even after turning up the stove, it takes time to reach boiling point.
Yet three major forces are currently suppressing market confidence:
1. Geopolitical Risk and Trade Tensions
In early April 2025, heightened trade tensions triggered a global flight to safety. Announcements of sweeping tariffs—including a sharp increase on Chinese imports—sparked volatility across markets. The S&P 500 dropped 4% in a single week as investors rushed into safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries.
Bitcoin, often viewed as a risk-on asset in the short term, suffered too. Trading volume on major platforms fell from $50 billion to $40 billion month-over-month (CoinMarketCap), reflecting reduced appetite for speculative assets amid uncertainty.
2. Central Bank Policy Conflict
Political pressure for rate cuts clashed with the Federal Reserve’s inflation concerns. While some policymakers called for easing, Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintained rates at 4.25%–4.5%, citing inflation risks from new tariffs. This delayed expectations for rate cuts—from three anticipated moves down to just two—keeping borrowing costs high and limiting capital flow into growth assets.
3. Recession Fears Mount
Economic outlooks are turning cautious. Goldman Sachs forecasts U.S. GDP growth of only 1% for 2025, while JPMorgan estimates a 60% chance of a global recession. Consumer confidence has declined for three consecutive months, prompting investors to de-risk portfolios—temporarily sidelining Bitcoin despite favorable long-term liquidity trends.
These factors have created a freeze—but beneath the surface, liquidity is building. Once the market absorbs these shocks, Bitcoin may be poised for a powerful rebound.
The Stock Market Connection: A Leading Indicator?
Bitcoin doesn’t move in isolation. It often follows broader financial trends—especially movements in the S&P 500.
In early 2025, the S&P rose from 5,000 to 5,400—a +8% gain—riding the wave of improving liquidity ahead of Bitcoin. This makes sense: equities are more sensitive to interest rates and monetary shifts due to their institutional dominance and lower volatility.
Bitcoin, with its higher daily swings (often ±5%), can lag during periods of short-term stress as funds rebalance or hedge positions. But historically, it catches up—and then some.
For example:
- In 2021, the S&P gained about 20% before Bitcoin surged past $69,000 six months later.
- In 2017, stock gains preceded Bitcoin’s meteoric rise by several months.
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With equities already responding to February’s liquidity boost, Bitcoin may be next in line. If history repeats, a breakout above $90,000 could occur by May or June.
Bond Markets Signal a Shift
Another hidden signal comes from the U.S. Treasury market.
When liquidity expands, investors tend to rotate out of low-yielding government bonds and into higher-return assets. This widens the yield spread between long-term and short-term Treasuries—a phenomenon known as curve steepening.
As of April 2025:
- The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 3.8%
- The 2-year yield is at 2.8%
- The spread: 1.0 percentage point
This widening mirrors conditions seen in 2017 when the spread grew from 0.8% to 1.2%, coinciding with Bitcoin’s 20x price increase.
Additionally, the Global Liquidity Index has climbed from 50 to 60 (out of 100), signaling increasing capital migration from bonds to risk assets like Bitcoin.
If this trend continues—and especially if the yield spread expands further—it could act as a catalyst for Bitcoin surpassing $100,000.
Will Bitcoin Hit $100,000 in 2025?
Based on current liquidity trends and historical precedent, yes—the $100K milestone is within reach by mid-to-late 2025.
Here’s the projected path:
- Late April–May: Liquidity effects from February take hold → Break above $90,000
- June–July: Continued monetary expansion → Push toward $95,000–$98,000
- August–September: Global Liquidity Index peaks → Potential breakout past $100,000
But risks remain:
- A 10% drop in the S&P 500 (to ~4,860) could pull Bitcoin down to $70,000.
- Unexpectedly high inflation (e.g., above 3.5%) might force central banks to slow easing.
- Large-scale selling by miners or institutional funds (e.g., $2B outflow) could trigger short-term dips.
- A deeper global slowdown—such as China’s GDP falling below 3%—could dampen liquidity growth.
Still, history shows that sustained monetary expansion tends to overpower temporary setbacks. The underlying engine—global liquidity—is revving up.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What causes Bitcoin to rise during periods of high money supply?
A: When central banks expand the money supply, investors look for assets that preserve value and offer high returns. Bitcoin, with its fixed supply and growing adoption, becomes an attractive hedge against currency devaluation.
Q: Why does it take two months for liquidity changes to affect Bitcoin?
A: Monetary policy impacts take time to filter through banking systems, investor behavior, and asset allocation decisions. It typically takes 6–8 weeks for new liquidity to significantly influence risk asset prices.
Q: Can Bitcoin reach $100,000 without ETF approval or institutional adoption?
A: While ETFs and institutions amplify demand, they’re not prerequisites. Previous rallies (like in 2017) occurred without them—driven purely by macroeconomic forces and retail participation.
Q: How reliable is the Global Liquidity Index as a predictor?
A: It has shown strong correlation with Bitcoin performance over multiple cycles. Peaks in the index have historically preceded major crypto rallies by 3–6 months.
Q: What happens if a recession hits in 2025?
A: Short-term pain is possible, but recessions often lead to renewed stimulus—fueling future rallies. Even in downturns, Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience due to its countercyclical appeal.
Q: Is $1 million Bitcoin possible long-term?
A: Many analysts believe so—based on scarcity (only 21 million BTC), increasing institutional interest, and potential global monetary instability driving demand for decentralized assets.
👉 Prepare now for the next leg of the bull market before momentum builds.
The $80,000 plateau isn’t an endpoint—it’s a launching pad. With global liquidity rising, bond signals flashing opportunity, and equities paving the way, **Bitcoin’s journey toward $100,000 is unfolding right on schedule**. While near-term volatility may test nerves, the macro winds are shifting in favor of digital assets.
Stay informed. Stay ready. The next chapter of crypto history may be written this summer.
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