Riding the Bull and Bear Cycles: My Journey Through Two Bitcoin $19,000 Peaks

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The world of cryptocurrency is one of extremes—explosive growth, sudden crashes, and emotional rollercoasters that test both conviction and patience. As someone who has lived through two pivotal moments when Bitcoin surged to $19,000, I’ve come to appreciate not just the technology’s potential, but also the psychological and economic cycles that shape its trajectory.

This is not just a story about price points. It’s a reflection on how markets evolve, how human behavior repeats itself, and how staying grounded in research and long-term vision can help navigate even the most turbulent times.

The 2017 Surge: From ICO Mania to Regulatory Shock

In the summer of 2017, a new financial phenomenon took hold—Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs). With little more than a whitepaper and a dream, startups raised millions in Ethereum and Bitcoin. The market was euphoric, speculative, and largely unregulated. I remember poring over project after project, feeling equal parts fascination and dread.

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At the time, I was working with a financial institution on blockchain integration research. What began as an academic exercise quickly turned into a front-row seat to history. The lack of technical expertise—even among PhDs—was startling. But that gap became an opportunity. I dove deep into cryptography, consensus mechanisms, and smart contracts. What started as research evolved into belief: blockchain wasn’t just hype—it was a foundational shift.

By late 2017, Bitcoin had climbed from around $1,000 to nearly $20,000. But amid the celebrations, warning signs emerged. The “shoe-shine boy” effect was in full force—everyone from taxi drivers to distant relatives was giving crypto investment advice. And then came the regulatory hammer.

On September 4, 2017, China banned ICOs and shut down domestic exchanges. Panic spread overnight. Prices plunged. Many fled the space, fearing it was over.

But I stayed.

Why? Because I understood that Bitcoin is a global asset. While Chinese traders dominated volume at the time, the network itself was borderless. Demand would simply migrate overseas. Regulatory crackdowns addressed local risks—not the underlying value proposition.

And I was right.

Within months, Bitcoin rebounded, reaching $19,000 by December—a psychological peak that felt invincible.

Echoes of History: 2020’s Return to $19,000

Fast forward to November 2020. Bitcoin once again breached $19,000—this time up over 150% for the year alone. Gold rose 23%, the S&P 500 by 12%, while the dollar weakened. Bitcoin wasn’t just outperforming—it was redefining what “safe haven” could mean in a digital age.

Yet déjà vu struck.

Just as Ray Dalio had been mocked for doubting Bitcoin earlier in the cycle, so too had George Soros been ridiculed in 2017—right before the crash. When mainstream figures are dismissed en masse, it often signals market extremity.

We were seeing familiar patterns:

These aren’t coincidences—they’re symptoms of a recurring market psychology.

Core Keywords:

The Psychology of Boom and Bust

Markets don’t move in straight lines—they oscillate between fear and greed like a pendulum. Economist Hyman Minsky described this as the “stages of a bubble”: displacement, boom, euphoria, profit-taking, and panic.

Bitcoin follows this rhythm closely.

In 2017–2018, we saw:

  1. Displacement: Institutional curiosity about blockchain
  2. Boom: ICO funding frenzy
  3. Euphoria: “To the moon” memes, $19K BTC
  4. Profit-taking: Smart money exits
  5. Panic: 80% drawdown over 12 months

Fast-forward to 2020: same script, slightly different cast.

When investors start using credit cards or loans to buy crypto, it’s a red flag. Leverage amplifies gains—but also collapses. And when everyone agrees “this time is different,” it usually isn’t.

Four-Year Cycles: The Power of Halving and Sentiment

One of Bitcoin’s most reliable patterns is its four-year cycle—tied directly to the block reward halving.

Each halving reduces new supply by 50%, creating structural scarcity. Historically:

But fundamentals alone don’t explain everything. Investor sentiment swings wildly.

During bear markets, pessimism runs deep. People believe Bitcoin is dead. Yet these are often the best times to accumulate.

During bull runs, FOMO (fear of missing out) dominates. Prices detach from reality. These are moments for caution.

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Where Do We Stand Today?

As Bitcoin retests key psychological levels, several indicators suggest we're in late-stage euphoria:

None of this means the rally is over—momentum can persist longer than logic allows. But it does mean risk management matters more than ever.

History doesn’t repeat exactly—but it rhymes.

Just as in 2017, those who entered with clarity, exited with discipline, and held through adversity emerged stronger.

FAQ: Common Questions About Bitcoin Cycles

Q: Is Bitcoin’s $19,000 level significant?
A: Yes—psychologically and technically. It represents a prior all-time high and acts as both resistance and support depending on market sentiment.

Q: How do halvings affect Bitcoin’s price?
A: By reducing new supply every four years, halvings create scarcity. Combined with rising demand, this often fuels major bull runs—though timing varies.

Q: Are we in a bubble now?
A: Signs point to elevated valuations and speculative behavior. While not necessarily a bubble yet, extreme greed suggests increased volatility ahead.

Q: Should I sell when Bitcoin hits $19,000?
A: That depends on your strategy. Traders may take profits; long-term holders often look beyond short-term peaks.

Q: Can regulation kill Bitcoin?
A: No—Bitcoin is decentralized and global. Regulation may disrupt exchanges or local access, but the protocol continues regardless.

Q: How do I avoid emotional trading?
A: Stick to a plan. Define entry/exit points based on data—not headlines or social media hype.

Final Thoughts: Staying Grounded in Volatility

Four years in crypto feels like decades elsewhere. We’ve seen bubbles burst, regulations shift, and technology mature.

But one truth remains constant: understanding cycles beats chasing prices.

Whether you’re new or seasoned, focus on learning—not just earning. Study blockchain fundamentals, track on-chain data, and respect investor psychology.

And when everyone else is shouting “moon,” ask yourself: What happened last time this felt inevitable?

Because those who remember history aren’t doomed to repeat it—they’re positioned to profit from it.

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