The first half of 2024 has been a transformative chapter in the evolution of Bitcoin mining. Marked by the pivotal fourth halving event, shifting economic dynamics, and an unexpected convergence with artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing (HPC), the industry has entered a new era defined by resilience, innovation, and strategic realignment. As hashprice dipped to historic lows post-halving, miners responded not with retreat—but with accelerated growth, capital raising, and diversification.
This report explores the evolving state of Bitcoin mining through key lenses: mining economics, transaction fee volatility, infrastructure development, mergers and acquisitions (M&A), and hashrate forecasts. We uncover how miners are adapting to new challenges while positioning themselves at the forefront of a broader technological revolution.
Mining Economics in the First Half of 2024
The first six months of 2024 revealed a stark contrast between quarters—one of strength and one of survival.
Q1 2024 delivered some of the strongest mining economics in two years. With Bitcoin’s price on an upward trajectory, hashprice averaged $0.094 per terahash per day (TH/day), enabling miners to build critical cash reserves ahead of the halving. Hashrate continued its steady climb, balancing revenue gains from rising asset prices.
The landscape shifted dramatically in Q2, especially after the April 19, 2024 halving. While the block subsidy was cut in half, a surge in transaction fees—driven by the launch of the Runes protocol—briefly offset the decline. For a short window, hashprice spiked to $0.17/TH**, offering temporary relief. However, as transaction activity normalized, hashprice plunged to **all-time lows**, averaging just **$0.054/TH post-halving.
Network difficulty reflected this volatility. It peaked at 88.1T (630 EH) before dropping 10% to a low of 79.5T (569 EH) in early July. As of this writing, difficulty has recovered slightly to 82.0T (587 EH).
At current levels, many miners operate at or near break-even. While gross margins may appear positive for those with low power costs, operating expenses—including maintenance, labor, and debt servicing—push numerous operations into negative cash flow. The robust Q1 profits provided a lifeline, extending runway for less efficient players. Without a meaningful rise in Bitcoin’s price or sustained transaction fee volume, continued unprofitability could force marginal miners offline.
Yet even amid this pressure, network hashrate is poised for significant growth. Why? Because new-generation ASICs—offering more than double the efficiency of older models—are being deployed at scale. Seven of the top ten public miners expect to energize 109 exahashes (EH) in H2 2024 alone.
👉 Discover how next-gen mining infrastructure is reshaping profitability and scalability in 2024.
Transaction Fee Volatility and the Runes Effect
One of the most defining developments of 2024 was the explosive emergence of Runes, a UTXO-based fungible token protocol launched on the halving block (block 840,000). Since January 1, Bitcoin has processed over 99 million on-chain transactions, with:
- 50% standard financial transactions
- 35% Runes-related
- 11% BRC-20
- 4% Ordinals
Despite launching only in April, Runes quickly dominated daily activity—averaging 63% of all transactions on Bitcoin since inception.
From January 1 to July 23, miners earned 12,970 BTC ($863 million)** in transaction fees—already **55% of total 2023 fees** (23,400 BTC). The halving day itself set a record: over **1,200 BTC in fees**, largely due to competitive bidding for inclusion in block 840,000. One Rune collection paid **$23 million to secure top placement.
Fee spikes were driven by "overpayment"—transactions setting sats/vByte far above the median to guarantee fast confirmation. On halving day:
- Median fee rate: 590 sats/vByte
- Peak median block rate: 1,840 sats/vByte
- Rune transactions paid +42% above median
- Standard financial transactions paid +34% above median
Interestingly, spikes in Rune activity correlated with higher fees for standard transactions—indicating competition for limited block space. While Runes consumed up to 2.7 MB in the halving block (68% of total), they average 1.5 MB/block post-halving—still more than BRC-20s (0.06 MB/block)—demonstrating superior efficiency and adoption.
Although fee revenue initially favored Runes (19% of YTD fees), standard transactions still contributed 67%, underscoring their foundational role in miner income.
Infrastructure and Capital Markets: A New Era of Growth
Equity Dominance and the Return of Debt
Miners raised a record $1.8 billion in equity capital in Q1 2024—the highest quarterly total in three years. The top three public miners—Marathon, CleanSpark, and Riot—accounted for 75% of that sum.
This capital was deployed aggressively: purchasing next-gen ASICs from Bitmain and MicroBT, upgrading fleets, securing power contracts, and building cash buffers. The urgency was clear—maximize ROI before halving economics tightened.
Debt financing had largely disappeared since mid-2022 due to risks tied to volatile ASIC valuations and collateral depreciation. But a shift is underway.
With power assets now in high demand—from both miners and AI data centers—the value of secured energy capacity has surged. Lenders are expected to re-enter the market in H2 2024 and into 2025, particularly for miners with long-term power agreements, interconnection approvals, water access, and fiber connectivity.
For miners, leveraging asset-backed debt offers a non-dilutive alternative to equity issuance—a crucial advantage as valuations remain sensitive to shareholder dilution.
👉 See how leading miners are unlocking capital through hybrid AI and energy strategies.
The $1 Million Per Megawatt Reality
Bitcoin miners are no longer just crypto operators—they’re energy infrastructure players at the center of a global AI compute boom.
Generative AI adoption is unprecedented. ChatGPT reached 100 million users in two months, and each query consumes 10x more power than a Google search. Global data center power demand is projected to rise by 160% by 2030, with U.S. demand growing from 21 GW to 35 GW.
Yet new dispatchable power sources (gas, nuclear) are declining. Intermittent renewables (solar, wind) will fill gaps—but without storage or grid upgrades, this creates bottlenecks. As Mark Zuckerberg noted: “The key now is securing energy.”
This energy crunch makes Bitcoin mining campuses—already equipped with substations, transformers, and interconnection rights—highly valuable.
Miners with procured long-lead electrical components (e.g., transformers with 3–4 year lead times) hold a massive time-to-market advantage. CoreWeave’s surprise $1 billion bid for Core Scientific—and its prior 200 MW hosting deal—proved that hyperscalers will pay premiums for ready-to-deploy sites.
Economically:
- Bitcoin mining yields ~**$125/MWh** revenue ($85 gross profit at $40/MWh power cost)
- AI/HPC contracts like CoreWeave’s offer $118/MWh fixed + pass-through power, with capex support
Even at low hashprice, AI contracts provide stable, predictable income—making hybrid models increasingly attractive.
M&A Activity: Consolidation and Strategic Shifts
Over $460 million in M&A deals have been transacted in 2024 across site sales, reverse mergers, and company acquisitions—a sign of strategic consolidation.
Key drivers include:
- Vertical Integration: Miners are acquiring sites to control power costs and optimize operations.
- Business Consolidation: Legacy hosting agreements are no longer viable; reverse mergers allow restructuring.
- Diversification: Bitdeer’s acquisition of ASIC designer Desiweminer exemplifies vertical expansion into proprietary hardware development.
For distressed miners unable to upgrade fleets or reduce costs, acquisition may be the only exit. At hashprice below **$0.06/TH**, even efficient operations struggle—especially with older machines like the S19j Pro generating only ~$70/MWh revenue.
However, miners sitting on valuable power assets—even with outdated fleets—are attractive targets. Amazon’s recent purchase of a Pennsylvania data center campus for **$677,000 per MW** far exceeds typical mining transaction values (~$404,000/MW), signaling strong appetite from hyperscalers.
Attractive acquisition targets typically feature:
- Approved power with clear energization path
- Contracted revenue (not just LOIs)
- Scalable land and infrastructure
- Opportunity for fleet upgrades or AI conversion
Hashrate Forecast: Revising Upward to 775 EH
In our previous annual outlook, we projected end-of-year hashrate between 675–725 EH. Today, we revise that upward to 725–775 EH, with a benchmark estimate of 741 EH.
This adjustment is based on:
- Public miner targets: Top seven expect to deploy 109 EH in H2
- Seasonality trends: Historically, hashrate accelerates post-summer
- Network efficiency gains: New ASICs (~17.5 J/TH) replacing older models (~30 J/TH)
Public miners currently represent ~13% of the network but are expected to grow to 25% by year-end, thanks to superior access to capital markets.
Even if hashprice remains low, new machine deployments will drive hashrate growth. Our economic model shows that at current power prices ($65/MWh) and improved efficiency (26.6 J/TH), breakeven hashcost is **$0.041/TH—below current levels—making 741 EH economically sustainable if Bitcoin stays between $65,000–$70,000**.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why did hashprice drop after the halving despite high transaction fees?
A: The initial fee surge was short-lived. Once Runes minting activity slowed, fee income normalized—while block subsidy was permanently halved—leading to lower overall miner revenue per terahash.
Q: Can Bitcoin mining remain profitable at current hashprice levels?
A: Yes—for efficient miners with low power costs (<$40/MWh) and modern ASICs. Others may survive temporarily on cash reserves but face pressure without price recovery.
Q: How are AI and HPC impacting Bitcoin mining valuations?
A: Miners with scalable power and infrastructure are being valued not just for mining potential but as AI-ready data center platforms—boosting equity valuations and M&A interest.
Q: Will more miners shift to hybrid AI/bitcoin models?
A: Likely yes—especially large-scale operators. Stable AI contracts offer risk diversification against volatile mining revenues.
Q: What happens if hashprice drops further?
A: Unprofitable miners may shut down equipment, reducing hashrate temporarily—but this will be offset by new machine deployments from well-capitalized players.
Q: Is the rise in hashrate sustainable without higher Bitcoin prices?
A: In the short term, yes—due to capital already invested and efficiency gains. Long-term sustainability depends on transaction fee growth or external revenue streams like AI.
Conclusion
The first half of 2024 tested Bitcoin mining like few periods before—but the response has been one of adaptation and ambition. Despite record-low hashprice conditions, miners raised historic capital, advanced infrastructure projects, and embraced new opportunities in AI and HPC.
Access to power is now the ultimate differentiator. Miners with scalable energy capacity, interconnection rights, and strategic vision are no longer just crypto participants—they’re key players in the global compute revolution.
As we look toward H2 2024 and beyond, expect continued hashrate growth, deeper integration with AI infrastructure, and a redefined value proposition for Bitcoin mining companies worldwide.
👉 Explore how next-generation mining ecosystems are driving innovation across blockchain and AI.