The price of gold has surged past the critical 3300 level, marking a strong technical rebound following recent macroeconomic volatility. This upward momentum reflects growing investor appetite for safe-haven assets amid weakening dollar sentiment, geopolitical tensions, and heightened expectations for future interest rate cuts. As gold continues to climb, market participants are now focusing on key resistance zones around 3350–3355, where a potential pullback could unfold.
Macroeconomic Forces Driving Gold’s Rally
Global economic uncertainty is intensifying, and gold is responding accordingly. On Monday, the precious metal gained 0.87%, recovering from a low of $3,247.87 per ounce before extending gains into Tuesday’s early trading session. The second quarter saw gold rise by 5.5%, marking two consecutive quarters of positive performance—an encouraging signal for long-term bulls.
A primary catalyst behind this rally has been the weakening U.S. dollar. The dollar index recorded its worst first half of the year since the 1970s, driven by concerns over widening fiscal deficits and uncertain trade policies. As confidence in the greenback erodes, investors increasingly turn to gold as a stable store of value.
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Moreover, ongoing geopolitical developments—including U.S.-China rare earth agreements, transatlantic trade negotiations, and looming tariff deadlines such as the July 9 deadline—are amplifying risk aversion. These factors enhance gold’s traditional role as a hedge against instability.
This week’s economic calendar centers on Thursday’s release of the U.S. June nonfarm payrolls report. Market forecasts anticipate approximately 110,000 new jobs and a potential rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. Such data could significantly influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory.
While the Fed remains cautious about cutting rates, market pricing suggests a high probability of a rate cut in September, with cumulative easing expectations reaching up to 66 basis points by year-end. Former President Trump’s renewed public pressure on the central bank adds another layer of unpredictability to policy decisions.
Technical Outlook: A Multi-Timeframe Analysis
To fully understand gold’s current trajectory, it's essential to analyze price action across multiple timeframes—from monthly cycles down to hourly movements.
Monthly Chart: Caution Amid Neutral Candles
On the monthly chart, May closed with a doji-like pattern, indicating indecision, while June finished with a bearish reversal candle. This suggests that although upward momentum exists, bullish conviction remains fragile. Traders should remain cautious about aggressive long positions until a clear monthly close above key resistance levels occurs.
Weekly Chart: Key Support at 3290
From a weekly perspective, gold recently tested a significant support zone as predicted. With time progressing, the critical weekly support now sits near 3290, acting as a pivotal threshold. A sustained break below this level could open the door to deeper corrections. Conversely, holding above it maintains the possibility of further upside.
Daily Chart: Resistance Zone at 3355
After breaking below daily support in prior weeks, gold has since been consolidating under daily resistance—now located between 3350 and 3355. As long as price remains below this zone, the broader bias favors range-bound or bearish corrections. A decisive close above 3355 would invalidate this outlook and signal a resumption of the primary uptrend.
Four-Hour Chart: Breakout Confirmed Above 3300
The four-hour chart provides crucial insight into short-term dynamics. Monday’s breakout above the four-hour resistance level confirmed renewed bullish momentum. With support now established at 3300, any price action above this level suggests continued upside potential toward the daily resistance zone.
A retest and failure at 3350–3355 could trigger profit-taking and a pullback toward 3320, then potentially down to 3300 and 3290 if momentum shifts.
One-Hour Chart: Momentum Favors Bulls for Now
Intraday strength was evident as gold closed strongly on Monday and immediately surpassed its previous high during Tuesday’s early session. The low of Tuesday’s early trade now serves as an intraday pivot point. As long as price holds above this level, the path of least resistance remains upward—targeting the 3350–3355 resistance area.
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Strategic Trade Setup: Watch for Rejection at Key Resistance
Given the current structure, a well-defined trading strategy emerges:
- Entry: Consider short positions if price shows reversal signals (e.g., bearish engulfing, pin bar) within the 3350–3355 zone.
- Stop Loss: Place stop loss at 3365 to allow for minor overshoots.
Take Profit Targets:
- First target: 3320 (intermediate support)
- Second target: 3300 (psychological and technical base)
- Final target: 3290 (weekly support threshold)
This setup aligns with both technical structure and risk-reward principles.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What caused gold to break above 3300?
Gold broke above 3300 due to a combination of dollar weakness, rising geopolitical risks, and increasing market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts later in 2025. Strong technical momentum following a bounce off key support levels also contributed.
Where is gold expected to go next?
Gold is likely to test the resistance zone between 3350 and 3355. A rejection here could lead to a pullback toward 3320–3290. However, a confirmed breakout above 3355 may extend gains toward new highs.
How does the U.S. jobs report affect gold prices?
The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report influences expectations for interest rates. Weaker-than-expected job growth or rising unemployment tends to boost gold by increasing speculation of rate cuts, which reduce bond yields and dollar strength—both bullish for gold.
Why is the dollar weakening in 2025?
The dollar is weakening due to concerns over growing U.S. fiscal deficits, political pressure on the Fed, and relatively dovish monetary policy compared to other central banks. This diminishes its appeal as a reserve currency and drives capital into alternatives like gold.
Is gold still a good inflation hedge?
Yes, gold remains one of the most reliable long-term hedges against inflation and currency devaluation. While it may not react instantly to CPI data, sustained inflationary pressures typically benefit gold over time.
What technical indicators confirm gold’s current trend?
Key indicators include the breakout above 3300 on four-hour charts, sustained trading above monthly support, and momentum shifts visible in intraday candlestick patterns. Volume and RSI divergence also help confirm trend validity.
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Final Thoughts
Gold’s breakout above 3300 underscores its enduring appeal during times of financial and geopolitical stress. While near-term resistance looms at 3355, broader fundamentals—including dollar weakness and anticipated monetary easing—support further upside potential in the medium term.
Investors should monitor upcoming economic data closely, especially U.S. employment and inflation metrics, which will shape central bank policy and ultimately influence gold’s next major move. Whether you're trading or investing for the long haul, understanding both technical levels and macro drivers is essential for navigating today’s dynamic markets.