As we approach the final stretch of 2025, Bitcoin and Ethereum markets are exhibiting signs of divergence, with each asset showing unique patterns in on-chain and derivatives data. While Bitcoin trades in a tight range below the psychological $100,000 mark, Ethereum has shown relative strength, climbing from $3,300 to nearly $3,700—an increase of about 12%. With critical derivatives events on the horizon and key technical indicators flashing mixed signals, investors must stay alert to shifting momentum and potential volatility.
This analysis dives into essential metrics including open interest, active addresses, Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), and options max pain levels to provide a data-driven outlook for both assets heading into year-end.
Bitcoin Open Interest: Cooling Derivatives Momentum
Bitcoin Open Interest (2023.12–2025.12)
The Bitcoin futures market has seen a slight pullback in open interest (OI) this week, ending a prior trend of continuous growth. After weeks of rising OI—typically signaling increasing market participation and bullish sentiment—the current plateau suggests that traders are either taking profits or cutting losing positions around the $91,000–$99,000 range.
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What is Open Interest?
Open Interest (OI) refers to the total number of outstanding derivative contracts (futures or options) that have not been settled. Rising OI often indicates growing market conviction and liquidity, while declining OI may signal reduced confidence or impending consolidation.
Although the drop isn’t steep enough to suggest a full-scale capitulation, it does raise caution. A healthy correction usually involves gradual unwinding with strong on-chain support—but so far, such confirmation remains absent. Traders using high leverage should remain cautious, as thinning OI could amplify price swings during sudden volatility.
Bitcoin Active Addresses: Demand Stalls
Bitcoin Active Addresses (2021.12–2025.12)
On-chain activity provides crucial insight into real user engagement. Currently, Bitcoin’s daily active addresses sit at approximately 1.062 million—unchanged from last week. This stagnation indicates a lack of new demand despite price movements near all-time highs.
Active addresses count the number of unique wallets sending or receiving BTC within a given period. Sustained growth in this metric typically confirms organic adoption and bullish momentum. Conversely, flat or declining trends suggest that price action may be driven more by speculation than real-world usage.
With no meaningful uptick in network activity, the current rally lacks foundational strength. If active addresses fail to grow alongside price, it increases the risk of a top formation—a scenario where prices peak before reversing due to exhausted buying pressure.
Monitor this closely: a reversal in active address trends would be an early warning sign of weakening market health.
Bitcoin SOPR: Bullish Crossover Emerges
Bitcoin Spent Output Profit Ratio (2023.11–2025.11)
A more optimistic signal comes from the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). Analysts, including CryptoQuant’s Crypto Dan, have observed that when the 30-day SOPR moving average crosses above the 365-day MA, it often precedes significant upward price movements within the following one to two months.
That exact crossover is now occurring.
Understanding SOPR
SOPR measures whether coins being moved on the blockchain are sold at a profit or loss. A value above 1 means most transferred BTC is sold profitably; below 1 indicates widespread selling at a loss.
This golden crossover suggests long-term holders are increasingly realizing gains without triggering a sell-off—indicating strong market resilience. Historically, such patterns have aligned with sustained bullish phases, particularly when combined with steady on-chain fundamentals.
While not a guarantee of future performance, the SOPR signal adds weight to the argument that Bitcoin could see renewed momentum in early 2025—if supporting data like active addresses begin to improve.
Ethereum Open Interest: Building Pressure for a Breakout
Ethereum Open Interest (2023.12–2025.12)
In contrast to Bitcoin’s consolidation, Ethereum’s derivatives market is heating up. Open interest in ETH futures has continued its upward trajectory, recently surpassing previous highs—a development often associated with the early stages of a major price move.
Futures markets frequently lead spot price action, especially during periods of heightened speculation. The growing OI suggests increasing institutional and retail interest in ETH directionality, possibly fueled by anticipation around protocol upgrades, ETF developments, or broader DeFi resurgence.
With sustained accumulation in open positions, the stage may be set for a strong directional breakout—either up or down. However, given the current uptrend and lack of extreme overleveraging, the bias leans toward a continuation of the rally, potentially unlocking a catch-up phase where ETH outperforms BTC.
Options Max Pain: A Magnet for Year-End Volatility
Bitcoin & Ethereum Max Pain (Expiry: 2025.12.27)
One of the most closely watched derivatives indicators as we near year-end is Max Pain—the strike price at which the greatest number of options contracts expire worthless, maximizing losses for option buyers.
For the December 27 expiry:
- Bitcoin Max Pain: $78,000
- Ethereum Max Pain: $2,800
- Total Notional Value at Risk: $13.22B (BTC) + $4.02B (ETH)
Markets often exhibit a gravitational pull toward max pain prices in the days leading up to expiration. With over $17 billion in combined options exposure concentrated around these levels, there's a high probability of increased manipulation attempts by large players (market makers or whales) to push prices toward these points.
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Given that both assets are currently trading above their respective max pain levels (BTC ~$95k, ETH ~$3,600), this creates downward pressure as expiration approaches. Traders should prepare for potential short-term corrections designed to “flush out” leveraged long positions before a possible rebound.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What does 'max pain' mean for cryptocurrency traders?
A: Max pain represents the price at which the most options contracts expire worthless. Traders watch it because markets often drift toward this level before expiry, creating predictable short-term volatility.
Q: Is rising open interest always bullish?
A: Not necessarily. Rising OI during a price increase suggests strong conviction. But if OI rises during a downtrend, it may indicate aggressive shorting and further downside risk.
Q: Why is SOPR important for long-term investors?
A: SOPR reveals whether holders are selling at a profit or loss. A sustained SOPR above 1 signals confidence and accumulation by strong hands, often preceding major rallies.
Q: Should I be worried about stagnant active addresses?
A: Yes—especially if prices are rising without growing user activity. It suggests speculation dominates over real adoption, increasing the risk of a correction.
Q: Can Ethereum outperform Bitcoin in late 2025?
A: Potentially. Strong open interest growth and ecosystem innovation give ETH an edge if macro conditions remain favorable and institutional interest grows.
Q: How can I protect my portfolio ahead of volatile expiries?
A: Reduce leverage, set stop-losses, and monitor OI and funding rates. Consider hedging with options or shifting to stablecoins temporarily during high-risk events.
Final Outlook: Caution Amid Contradictory Signals
The crypto market enters year-end with conflicting signals across Bitcoin and Ethereum. Bitcoin shows hesitation—lackluster active address growth and cooling open interest contrast with a promising SOPR crossover. Meanwhile, Ethereum displays stronger momentum through rising derivatives activity, suggesting potential for further gains.
However, the looming $78,000 BTC and $2,800 ETH max pain levels introduce significant near-term risk. These figures act as powerful magnets for price action in the final weeks of 2025, likely triggering sharp swings as market makers defend their positions.
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Investors should remain vigilant:
- Watch for resumption in Bitcoin’s active address growth.
- Monitor Ethereum’s OI for signs of overheating.
- Prepare for potential pullbacks toward max pain levels before any final rally.
Ultimately, data—not emotion—should guide decisions in this high-stakes environment.
Keywords: Bitcoin price analysis, Ethereum market outlook, crypto derivatives data, SOPR indicator explained, blockchain active addresses, cryptocurrency max pain, open interest trends, year-end crypto forecast