The long-anticipated Ropsten testnet merge took place last week—and by most accounts, it was a technical success. The transition from proof-of-work (PoW) to proof-of-stake (PoS), commonly known as “the Merge,” progressed smoothly across critical infrastructure, with only minor issues requiring post-merge fixes. Yet despite this milestone in Ethereum’s evolution, market sentiment remains cautious. Ether (ETH), the network’s native cryptocurrency, failed to gain upward momentum and has since dipped below the $1,500 mark, hitting fresh lows not seen in over 17 months.
This divergence between technological progress and price performance raises important questions about investor confidence, market timing, and the broader macroeconomic environment affecting digital assets.
The Merge Timeline: Still Targeting Late Q3 2025
While no official date has been set for the mainnet Merge, core developers continue to point toward late Q3 2025 as a realistic window. Tim Beiko, a leading Ethereum protocol developer, recently reaffirmed this estimate in a Twitter response to community inquiries about development urgency.
“I still feel like the September–October (late) range is roughly correct? It’s just hard to predict how quickly bugs will get fixed and how many new issues we’ll encounter,” Beiko stated.
His comments echo earlier warnings from Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, who emphasized the risks of unforeseen technical hurdles that could delay the transition into 2026 if critical vulnerabilities emerge. The development team is prioritizing stability over speed, adopting a cautious approach reminiscent of other high-reliability blockchain projects.
Beiko further clarified that even if a mid-September target is set, any last-minute synchronization flaws or consensus bugs would prompt an immediate postponement—underscoring Ethereum’s commitment to delivering a flawless upgrade.
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The next major milestone on the path to the mainnet Merge is the Goerli testnet merge, expected within weeks. Once completed and audited, it will serve as the final dress rehearsal before the live network transition.
Market Indifference Follows Ropsten Success
Despite the successful Ropsten merge—marking the first of three major testnets to complete the PoS transition—investor enthusiasm has remained muted. ETH prices hovered between $1,780 and $1,820 immediately after the event but soon began a steady decline.
This lack of positive price reaction suggests skepticism among traders about whether the September–October timeline will hold. Many analysts interpret the tepid response as evidence that the market has already priced in the Merge, or worse, doubts its如期 execution.
Moreover, broader macroeconomic pressures—including rising interest rates, inflation concerns, and risk-off investor behavior—have weighed heavily on crypto markets. In such an environment, even significant technical achievements struggle to drive sustained bullish momentum.
ETH Plunges to 17-Month Lows Amid Broader Crypto Sell-Off
Data shows Ethereum dropped over $300 in the past 48 hours, with ETH trading around $1,463 at press time. According to CoinMarketCap, the ETH/USD pair briefly touched a low of $1,436.18—the lowest level since November 2021—before slightly recovering.
At current levels, Ether is down approximately 5.79% on the day and sits roughly 70% below its all-time high of nearly $4,878 reached in November 2021. Trading volume has spiked during the downturn, indicating heightened selling pressure and short-term bearish sentiment.
Deribit Insights highlighted a potential structural issue contributing to ETH’s underperformance relative to Bitcoin: imbalances within the ETH-stETH (staked ETH) ecosystem.
“Testnet merge succeeded, but ETH market didn’t react,” Deribit noted. “This doesn’t stop further accumulation for ETH Sep 35-40-45k calls, fly x10k for mainnet merge play. Concerns over ETH-stETH peg grow amid post-Terra era scrutiny of institutional health.”
The reference to stETH reflects lingering worries about liquidity and redemption risks in decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols following past collapses like Terra/LUNA. Although Lido and other staking platforms have improved transparency and risk management, market participants remain sensitive to potential dislocations between staked and liquid ETH values.
Technical Outlook: Bearish Patterns Signal Further Downside Risk
From a technical perspective, Ethereum’s recent breakdown below key support levels suggests additional downside pressure may be on the horizon. The drop below $1,600 and then $1,500 has invalidated previous consolidation zones, leaving little immediate resistance on the way down.
Key indicators also point to weakening momentum:
- The 50-day and 200-day moving averages remain in a death cross configuration.
- Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near oversold territory but hasn’t triggered a reversal signal.
- On-chain data reveals increasing outflows from centralized exchanges—a mixed signal that could indicate long-term holding or forced liquidations.
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Without a strong catalyst—such as definitive confirmation of a mainnet Merge date or macroeconomic relief—analysts expect ETH to test support near $1,350–$1,400 in the coming weeks.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is the Ethereum Merge?
A: The Ethereum Merge refers to the network’s transition from a proof-of-work (PoW) consensus mechanism to proof-of-stake (PoS). This upgrade aims to improve scalability, security, and energy efficiency.
Q: Has the Ethereum Merge happened yet?
A: No. The mainnet Merge has not occurred. However, multiple testnets—including Ropsten and Goerli—have successfully completed their merges as rehearsals.
Q: Why did ETH price drop after the Ropsten merge?
A: Despite technical success, markets often react to expectations rather than outcomes. Since the Ropsten merge was anticipated, its success was already priced in. Broader bearish conditions also contributed to the sell-off.
Q: When is Ethereum expected to merge on mainnet?
A: Developers currently estimate late Q3 2025, pending successful completion of remaining testnet merges and absence of critical bugs.
Q: How will staking change after the Merge?
A: After the Merge, validators will secure the network by staking ETH instead of mining. Stakers will earn rewards in ETH, and withdrawal functionality for staked funds will be enabled in a follow-up upgrade.
Q: Is now a good time to buy Ethereum?
A: Investment decisions should be based on individual risk tolerance and research. While fundamentals remain strong long-term, short-term volatility is expected amid uncertain macro conditions.
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