Bitcoin has experienced a 7.6% pullback since nearly breaching the symbolic $100,000 mark on November 22, 2024. While the price surge and subsequent retreat may have sparked concern among newer investors, on-chain data reveals a more strategic narrative unfolding behind the scenes—long-term holders (LTHs) are actively taking profits, and history suggests this trend may not be over yet.
This correction marks the largest decline since the post-U.S. election rally that propelled Bitcoin from around $66,000 to new all-time highs. Yet, such movements are far from unusual. In fact, they’re a hallmark of mature bull markets, where corrections of 20% or even 30% help purge excessive leverage and speculative positions. The current dip fits squarely within this pattern, suggesting a healthy market recalibration rather than a reversal of momentum.
The Role of Long-Term Holders in Market Cycles
At the heart of this price action are long-term holders—defined by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode as investors who have held their Bitcoin for more than 155 days. These participants are often referred to as “smart money” due to their tendency to accumulate during bear markets and distribute during periods of euphoria.
Recent data shows that LTHs have sold approximately 549,119 BTC between September and November 2024—equivalent to about 3.85% of their total holdings. This wave of profit-taking intensified in October and has continued into late November, outpacing even institutional accumulation from major buyers like MicroStrategy and U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs.
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The scale of this selling is historic. On November 21 alone, Glassnode recorded a record $10.5 billion in net realized profit—the largest single-day profit-taking event in Bitcoin’s history. This indicates that a significant portion of early investors are locking in gains after years of holding through volatility.
Historical Patterns Suggest More Selling Ahead
What makes this phase particularly insightful is the recurring pattern observed in prior bull cycles. Each cycle has seen a smaller percentage of long-term supply sold off at the peak, suggesting increased market maturity and holder conviction.
- In 2017, long-term holders sold off 25.3% of their supply during the peak phase.
- In 2021, that figure dropped to 13.4%.
- In early 2024, it was just 6.51%.
- Currently, in late 2024, we’re at 3.85%.
If this trend of diminishing sell-offs continues linearly, the next logical inflection point would involve an additional 1.19% reduction in LTH supply—amounting to roughly 163,031 BTC still left to be sold before the cohort stabilizes.
This doesn’t imply panic or capitulation. Rather, it reflects a gradual, strategic exit by seasoned investors who entered during earlier price cycles. Their behavior aligns with historical precedent: take profits incrementally, avoid flooding the market, and preserve capital for future opportunities.
Moreover, each cycle has seen LTH supply form higher lows and higher highs, indicating growing confidence and reduced sensitivity to short-term volatility. A drop to approximately 13.54 million BTC in long-term holdings would fit this ascending trend, reinforcing Bitcoin’s maturation as a long-duration asset.
Why This Matters for Market Sentiment
Understanding LTH behavior is crucial for interpreting broader market sentiment. When long-term investors begin selling en masse, it often signals that the market has entered the late stages of a bull run. However, the pace and volume of these sales determine whether the correction will be sharp or orderly.
The current environment suggests an orderly distribution phase, where smart money is rebalancing portfolios without triggering a collapse. This controlled release of supply helps absorb speculative froth while maintaining underlying demand—especially from new entrants and institutions.
Furthermore, with ETF inflows continuing and corporate treasuries like MicroStrategy still actively accumulating, the net impact of LTH selling may be cushioned over time. The market is increasingly capable of absorbing large sell-side pressure without dramatic drawdowns.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What defines a long-term holder in Bitcoin?
A long-term holder is typically defined as an investor who has held Bitcoin for more than 155 days. This threshold helps distinguish speculative traders from strategic accumulators who tend to ride through volatility.
Why are long-term holders selling now?
Many long-term holders are taking profits after Bitcoin approached $100,000—a psychological and technical milestone. Having held through previous bear markets, they are capitalizing on record valuations to realize gains.
Does this mean the bull market is over?
Not necessarily. Profit-taking by long-term holders is a normal phase in every bull cycle. Historically, such corrections lead to consolidation before potential further upside, especially if institutional demand remains strong.
How much Bitcoin have long-term holders sold in 2024?
Approximately 549,119 BTC were sold by long-term holders between September and November 2024. This represents about 3.85% of their total holdings during that period.
Could another 163,000 BTC be sold soon?
Based on historical trends showing declining percentages of supply sold at each peak, analysts project an additional 1.19% reduction—roughly 163,031 BTC—before the cohort stabilizes around 13.54 million BTC.
What tools can track long-term holder activity?
On-chain analytics platforms like Glassnode provide real-time insights into holder behavior, including supply distribution, realized profit/loss, and movement between exchanges and wallets.
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Final Thoughts
The current phase of Bitcoin’s market cycle reflects a transition from broad euphoria to strategic realignment. Long-term holders—those who have weathered multiple downturns—are now selectively exiting positions, guided by historical patterns and risk management principles.
While short-term volatility may persist, the underlying structure of the market remains robust. With institutional adoption accelerating and on-chain fundamentals strong, the path forward likely includes both consolidation and renewed growth.
For investors, the lesson is clear: watch the smart money. Their actions don’t signal fear—but foresight.