Bitcoin has captured the attention of investors, technologists, and financial analysts since its inception on January 3, 2009—the day the "genesis block" was mined. A recent in-depth analysis highlights a striking trend: out of the 3,830 days since Bitcoin's launch, 3,671 days (approximately 98.2%) have been part of an upward price movement. This data underscores the long-term bullish momentum behind the world’s first cryptocurrency and fuels growing speculation about its future trajectory.
The report, published on June 24, identifies what analysts are calling the “stealth phase” of Bitcoin’s bull market cycle—a quiet but critical period preceding explosive price growth. During this phase, key on-chain metrics and market sentiment build momentum without widespread public awareness. According to the research, Bitcoin is now entering the early stage of its third such stealth cycle.
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Understanding the Stealth Phase
The concept of the "stealth phase" draws from historical patterns observed in previous Bitcoin market cycles. Analysts cross-referenced Google Trends data with Bitcoin’s price movements and found a strong correlation between rising search interest and subsequent price surges—though not immediately. The stealth phase typically occurs before mainstream attention peaks.
During this period:
- Public interest remains relatively low.
- Institutional accumulation increases.
- Network fundamentals strengthen.
- On-chain activity grows steadily.
This suggests that while retail investors may still be on the sidelines, informed players are positioning themselves ahead of the next leg up.
Technical Indicators Signal a New Bull Market
One of the most compelling pieces of evidence in the report is the interaction between Bitcoin’s 50-week moving average (MA) and its market price. Historically, when Bitcoin’s price crosses above this long-term moving average, it has served as a reliable precursor to a bull run.
For example:
- In 2015, BTC broke above the 50-week MA months before the 2017 rally.
- A similar pattern emerged in 2019 ahead of the 2020–2021 bull market.
Currently, Bitcoin has once again moved above this key threshold, aligning with analyst expectations of a new cyclical upswing expected to peak in 2025.
On-Chain Metrics Reflect Strong Network Health
Beyond technical charts, fundamental on-chain indicators are flashing green. These metrics offer insight into actual user behavior and network security:
- Hash rate: Bitcoin’s hash rate—the total computational power securing the network—has reached all-time highs, reflecting robust miner participation and confidence in the network’s future.
- Daily active addresses: The number of unique addresses involved in transactions is nearing previous peaks, indicating increased usage and economic activity.
- Transaction volume: Growing transaction counts suggest rising demand for Bitcoin as both a store of value and medium of exchange.
These on-chain fundamentals are not just coincidental; they correlate strongly with long-term price appreciation. When usage and security grow in tandem, investor confidence follows.
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Why Experts Believe the Bull Market Has Just Begun
Former Wall Street executive Tone Vays has publicly stated that the current bull market is still in its infancy. He cites four primary drivers:
- Historical Market Cycles: Bitcoin follows predictable four-year cycles tied to halving events. With the most recent halving occurring in 2024, the next price peak is historically expected around 2025.
- Institutional Adoption: Major financial institutions are increasingly allocating capital to Bitcoin through ETFs, custody solutions, and balance sheet investments.
- Strengthening Network Fundamentals: As discussed, hash rate, transaction volume, and developer activity continue to improve.
- Fiat Currency Debasement: Global monetary policies involving quantitative easing and inflationary spending are pushing investors toward hard assets like Bitcoin.
Together, these factors create a powerful tailwind that could propel Bitcoin beyond its previous all-time high.
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These terms reflect high-volume queries from users seeking insights into Bitcoin’s future performance and underlying drivers.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is the “stealth phase” in Bitcoin’s market cycle?
A: The stealth phase refers to the early stage of a bull market when Bitcoin gains traction among informed investors while remaining under the radar of mainstream media and retail traders. It’s characterized by steady on-chain growth and rising institutional interest before prices begin rapid ascent.
Q: How accurate is the 98.2% uptrend claim?
A: The figure comes from a detailed analysis of daily price movements since Bitcoin’s inception. While not every day saw a close higher than the open, the study defines “uptrend days” based on broader trend context and closing prices relative to key moving averages. It reflects long-term momentum rather than intraday fluctuations.
Q: Does crossing above the 50-week moving average guarantee a bull run?
A: While not a guarantee, this signal has preceded every major bull market in Bitcoin’s history. It reflects long-term investor confidence and often coincides with increased buying pressure from institutions.
Q: What role does halving play in Bitcoin’s price cycle?
A: The halving event reduces the rate at which new bitcoins are created, cutting miner rewards in half approximately every four years. Historically, reduced supply pressure combined with steady or increasing demand has led to significant price increases 12–18 months post-halving.
Q: Can on-chain data predict short-term price moves?
A: On-chain metrics are better suited for assessing long-term trends and network health rather than precise short-term predictions. However, sustained increases in active addresses or exchange outflows can signal accumulating demand ahead of major price moves.
Q: Is it too late to invest in Bitcoin now?
A: While early adopters reaped massive gains, many analysts believe substantial upside remains—especially given ongoing institutional adoption and macroeconomic uncertainties. Timing the market perfectly is difficult; dollar-cost averaging remains a widely recommended strategy.
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Final Thoughts
The evidence presented in this research paints a compelling picture: Bitcoin is not just surviving—it's thriving. With over 98% of its lifetime spent in upward price motion, reinforced by strong technical signals and fundamental metrics, the asset continues to demonstrate resilience and long-term growth potential.
As we approach what many believe will be the peak of the 2025 bull cycle, understanding these underlying patterns becomes crucial for both new and experienced investors. Whether you're tracking hash rate trends or monitoring moving averages, staying informed is key to navigating the evolving landscape of digital assets.
Note: Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk due to high volatility. Always conduct thorough research and consider your risk tolerance before investing.