Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading in a tight range following a strong 7.32% weekly gain, as market participants adopt a cautious stance ahead of key macroeconomic developments. With the looming deadline for former President Donald Trump’s budget proposal and the expiration of a temporary tariff pause in early July, traders are closely watching for signs of renewed volatility. This wait-and-see attitude is reflected in recent ETF flows, which saw a significant $342.25 million outflow on Tuesday—the largest since May 30—ending a 15-day streak of consecutive inflows.
Market Consolidation Ahead of Key Political and Economic Events
Bitcoin has entered a period of consolidation, trading within a narrow band between $105,333 and $108,355 since June 25. According to K33 Research, BTC’s 7-day volatility has dropped to just 0.79%, the lowest level since October 14, 2023. This calm follows a brief rally triggered by news of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, which pushed BTC above $108,000.
👉 Discover how geopolitical events influence crypto markets and what it means for your next move.
However, momentum stalled as political uncertainty returned. The Senate narrowly passed Trump’s "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) by a 51–50 vote, sending it back to the House for final approval. The former president aims to finalize the budget by Friday. Simultaneously, the temporary pause on certain tariffs is set to expire on July 9, introducing potential trade-related uncertainty.
These developments could sway BTC’s trajectory in opposing directions: fiscal expansion under OBBB might fuel inflationary expectations and boost risk assets like Bitcoin, while renewed trade tensions could trigger risk-off behavior and capital flight from volatile assets.
Additionally, reduced market liquidity due to the July 4 Independence Day holiday may amplify price swings. Traders are also awaiting crucial U.S. macroeconomic data, including the nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report on Thursday, which will influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook and, by extension, investor sentiment toward digital assets.
Institutional Demand Shows Early Signs of Weakness
Institutional interest in Bitcoin appears to be cooling slightly. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $342.25 million on Tuesday, according to SoSoValue. This marks a notable shift from the consistent inflows observed since June 9 and may signal short-term profit-taking or risk reduction by large investors.
Persistent outflows could pressure BTC prices, especially if macro conditions fail to improve investor confidence. Meanwhile, legislative efforts to strengthen state-level Bitcoin adoption have faced setbacks. Arizona’s HB2324, which aimed to create a fund using seized digital assets, was vetoed by Governor Katie Hobbs. She cited concerns that the bill would discourage local law enforcement from cooperating with state authorities on crypto-related seizures.
While this is a regional development, it underscores the ongoing regulatory complexities surrounding institutional crypto adoption in the U.S.
👉 Learn how policy changes impact crypto investment strategies and long-term value.
Technical Outlook: Bullish Momentum vs. Key Support Levels
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase with bullish indicators still active but unconfirmed.
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 55, showing upward momentum after rebounding from neutral territory (50). More importantly, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) generated a bullish crossover last week, accompanied by rising green histogram bars above the zero line—both classic signs of strengthening bullish sentiment.
If BTC breaks and closes above the upper boundary of its current range at $108,355 on a daily basis, the next target could be the May 22 all-time high of $111,980. Such a move would confirm that upward momentum has resumed and could attract fresh buying interest.
Conversely, failure to hold support at $105,333 could open the door to further downside pressure. A daily close below the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $104,305 might accelerate selling and test the psychologically significant $100,000 level—a major support zone watched closely by traders and institutions alike.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization and functions as a decentralized digital currency. It operates without control from any central authority, eliminating the need for third parties in financial transactions.
What are altcoins?
Altcoins refer to all cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin. Some consider Ethereum an exception due to its foundational role and network effects. Litecoin, derived from a Bitcoin protocol fork, is often regarded as the first true "altcoin" or "improved" version of Bitcoin.
What are stablecoins?
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to maintain a stable value, typically pegged to assets like the U.S. dollar. They are backed by reserves or algorithmically stabilized to minimize volatility. Stablecoins serve as entry and exit points in crypto trading and allow investors to preserve value during turbulent markets.
What is Bitcoin dominance?
Bitcoin dominance measures BTC’s market cap as a percentage of the total crypto market cap. High dominance often signals investor preference for Bitcoin during uncertain times or early bull runs. A decline suggests capital rotation into altcoins in search of higher returns—a trend often linked to altseason onset.
Why does macroeconomic news affect Bitcoin?
Bitcoin increasingly behaves as a macro-sensitive asset. Events like budget decisions, tariff policies, inflation data, and interest rate expectations influence investor risk appetite. While not directly correlated to traditional markets, BTC often reacts to shifts in liquidity, inflation outlooks, and U.S. dollar strength.
How do ETF flows impact Bitcoin price?
Spot Bitcoin ETFs reflect institutional demand. Sustained inflows typically signal growing confidence and can drive price appreciation. Conversely, large outflows may indicate profit-taking or risk aversion, potentially leading to short-term price corrections.
👉 See how real-time ETF flow data can inform smarter trading decisions today.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin’s current consolidation reflects a market at an inflection point—caught between resilient technical indicators and growing macro uncertainty. With critical political deadlines and economic data on the horizon, traders should prepare for potential volatility in the coming days.
While short-term price action hinges on breakout direction from its tight range, the broader narrative remains supportive: institutional infrastructure continues to evolve, regulatory clarity is slowly improving, and macro drivers like fiscal policy and monetary expectations keep Bitcoin relevant in global financial discourse.
For investors and traders alike, staying informed and agile will be key. Monitoring ETF flows, technical levels, and policy developments can help navigate this transitional phase—and position for what may come next in the 2025 crypto cycle.