Market analysts are closely watching XRP’s price trajectory, with emerging signals suggesting a potential bull run could begin as early as late 2024. Drawing from historical patterns tied to Bitcoin halving events, experts are identifying a recurring trend: XRP tends to initiate significant upward momentum roughly eight months after each halving.
This insight comes from two prominent crypto analysts—PharaohX and The Block Bull—who have independently analyzed past market cycles and drawn similar conclusions. Their findings point to a window between December 2024 and January 2025 as a high-probability timeframe for XRP to launch its next major rally.
The 8-Month XRP Bull Cycle Pattern
One of the most compelling observations comes from analyst PharaohX, who has traced XRP’s price behavior following the previous two Bitcoin halvings in 2016 and 2020. Both events were followed by a notable delay before XRP began its ascent—approximately eight months later.
After Bitcoin’s July 2016 halving, XRP remained relatively dormant until March 2017, when it exploded from $0.005 to over $3, marking a staggering 68,000% increase in just a few months. This surge positioned XRP among the top-performing cryptocurrencies during that bull market.
A similar pattern emerged after the May 2020 halving. XRP’s price started gaining momentum in January 2021, about eight months post-halving. While the rally was more modest—delivering roughly 900% growth—external factors played a key role in limiting its potential.
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Impact of the SEC Lawsuit on XRP’s 2021 Rally
The muted performance in the 2020–2021 cycle was largely attributed to regulatory uncertainty. At the time, Ripple Labs was embroiled in a high-profile lawsuit with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which claimed that XRP was an unregistered security.
This legal battle created hesitation among institutional investors and exchanges, dampening demand and limiting liquidity. However, recent court rulings have clarified that XRP is not a security when sold to retail investors—a landmark decision that has reshaped market sentiment.
With this regulatory overhang significantly reduced, analysts believe XRP is now better positioned for a stronger rally in the current cycle. The legal clarity opens doors for broader adoption, including potential financial products like XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Could XRP See Another Massive Surge?
While few expect a repeat of the 68,000% surge from 2017—given the much larger market cap today—analysts remain optimistic about substantial gains. PharaohX proposed a hypothetical scenario: if XRP were to experience a similar percentage increase from its recent low of $0.28**, the price could theoretically reach **$190.
Such a move would give XRP a market capitalization of $10.8 trillion, far exceeding the current global money supply in M1 form. While this outcome is highly speculative, it underscores the asymmetric upside potential that altcoins like XRP can offer during strong bull markets.
More realistically, even a 10x or 20x return from current levels would place XRP well above its previous all-time high, driven by increased adoption, improved liquidity, and macroeconomic tailwinds.
The 33-Week Bottom Strategy: A Tactical Entry Point
Complementing PharaohX’s analysis, another market observer known as The Block Bull has highlighted a related but slightly different pattern using weekly chart data. He identifies that 33 weeks after a Bitcoin halving often marks a strategic buying opportunity—the so-called “cycle bottom.”
Historically, this timing aligns closely with the start of major upward moves:
- After the 2016 halving (July), 33 weeks later brought us to late February 2017, just before XRP’s explosive rally.
- After the 2020 halving (May), 33 weeks placed us around mid-January 2021, again coinciding with the beginning of XRP’s uptrend.
Given that the most recent Bitcoin halving occurred in April 2024, adding 33 weeks brings us to mid-December 2024—specifically between December 9 and December 16.
This window also follows the U.S. presidential election, an event that historically correlates with shifts in crypto market sentiment due to anticipated regulatory changes and macroeconomic policy shifts.
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Current Market Conditions and Price Action
As of now, XRP is trading at $0.5181, reflecting a minor decline of 0.65% over the past 24 hours. Despite short-term volatility, long-term indicators remain constructive.
The convergence of technical patterns, reduced regulatory risk, and growing institutional interest paints a favorable backdrop for XRP. With Bitcoin stabilizing post-halving and liquidity conditions improving across markets, altcoins are beginning to show signs of accumulation.
Moreover, Ripple’s ongoing expansion in cross-border payments—particularly in emerging markets—adds fundamental strength to the network’s utility value, further supporting long-term price appreciation.
Key Core Keywords:
- XRP price prediction
- Bitcoin halving impact
- XRP bull run timeline
- crypto market cycles
- XRP ETF potential
- post-halving altcoin rally
- XRP historical performance
- Ripple SEC lawsuit
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
When is XRP expected to start its next bull run?
Analysts project that XRP could begin its next major upward move between December 2024 and January 2025, approximately eight months after the April 2024 Bitcoin halving.
What is the significance of the Bitcoin halving for XRP?
Historically, Bitcoin halvings reduce new supply issuance, often triggering broader market rallies. For XRP, data shows a consistent pattern of strong price movements beginning around eight months after each halving event.
Why didn’t XRP rally more strongly after the 2020 halving?
The limited price surge following the 2020 halving was largely due to ongoing litigation between Ripple and the SEC, which created uncertainty and restricted institutional participation.
Is an XRP ETF possible now?
Following court rulings that XRP is not a security for retail sales, momentum is building for an XRP-based ETF. Ripple’s CEO has publicly stated he believes such a product is inevitable and could significantly boost demand.
What is the 33-week rule in crypto markets?
The “33-week rule” suggests that major altcoins like XRP often reach their lowest point in a cycle—offering optimal entry—around 33 weeks after a Bitcoin halving. This has held true in both 2017 and 2021.
How high could XRP go in this cycle?
While extreme projections suggest prices up to $190 under ideal conditions, more conservative estimates focus on multi-bagger returns (5x–20x) from current levels, depending on macro trends and adoption.
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