The cryptocurrency market is entering a pivotal phase in July, with momentum building around two major narratives: the rising probability of an XRP spot ETF approval and the sustained institutional demand for Bitcoin through ETFs. Recent regulatory developments, shifting market sentiment, and strong on-chain data are setting the stage for potential breakthroughs — not just in price, but in long-term adoption.
XRP Spot ETF Hopes Soar After SEC Action
A key development has reignited optimism around XRP, as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) formally acknowledged Grayscale’s amended filing to convert its Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC) into an ETF. While this isn’t final approval, it signals progress in the regulatory review process — a critical step toward potential listing.
What makes GDLC notable is its diversified basket of digital assets:
- Bitcoin (BTC): 79.9%
- Ethereum (ETH): 11.32%
- XRP: 4.99%
- Solana (SOL): 3.01%
- Cardano (ADA): 0.78%
Although XRP’s allocation is relatively small, inclusion in a regulated ETF product could act as a catalyst for broader market legitimacy.
👉 Discover how ETF approvals could reshape the future of altcoins
Nate Geraci, President of ETF Store, highlighted the strategic importance:
“Approving GDLC offers a ‘test run’ for including more crypto assets in ETF structures. With XRP, SOL, and ADA collectively under 10%, this is a measured way to expand beyond BTC and ETH.”
This move echoes Grayscale’s landmark 2023 victory when a court ruled the SEC must reevaluate its rejection of converting GBTC into a spot Bitcoin ETF — a decision that ultimately unlocked $48.85 billion** in net inflows and helped push Bitcoin to an all-time high of **$111,917 in May 2025.
Now, the same legal momentum may be building for XRP.
Regulatory Clarity on the Horizon for XRP?
The path to an XRP spot ETF hinges largely on the resolution of the long-running SEC vs. Ripple case. Recent signals suggest progress:
- Ripple has moved to drop its cross-appeal.
- The SEC is expected to respond on whether it will withdraw its appeal regarding the classification of XRP programmatic sales.
A withdrawal by the SEC would strengthen the argument that XRP is not a security — a prerequisite for ETF approval.
Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have responded with increased confidence, raising their forecast:
“We now estimate a 95% chance of an XRP spot ETF being approved by the end of 2025.”
The final decision deadline for pending applications is set for October 17, 2025.
However, prediction markets tell a more cautious story. On Polymarket, the probability of approval by December 2025 stands at 60.2% — down from 98.2% in early June — reflecting investor skepticism amid regulatory uncertainty.
Still, growing institutional interest cannot be ignored. As Geraci notes:
“In terms of community passion: 1) BTC, 2) XRP, 3) HBAR, 4) ETH, 5) SOL. The demand for an XRP ETF is real and deeply felt.”
XRP Price Outlook: Breakout or Pullback?
XRP ended June on a high note, rising 1.42% on June 30 to close at $2.2382, outperforming a broader crypto market that dipped 0.88%. This came on the heels of positive legal and regulatory sentiment.
Key Price Levels to Watch:
Upside Targets:
- Break above $2.3389** (June 16 high) opens door to **$2.6553 (May high).
- Sustained move past that level could challenge the January peak of $3.3999.
Downside Risks:
- A drop below the 50-day EMA may lead to test support at $1.9299, aligned with the 200-day EMA.
Short-term price action will likely hinge on two catalysts:
- SEC’s next move on the Ripple appeal.
- Final decision on Grayscale’s GDLC ETF application — expected this week.
Bitcoin ETF Inflows Show No Sign of Slowing
While XRP grabs headlines, Bitcoin continues to demonstrate strength through steady institutional accumulation via spot ETFs.
Despite ending a three-day rally with a 1.09% dip on June 30, BTC held firm at $107,167, showing resilience amid profit-taking and pre-vote caution ahead of key legislative developments.
Why Demand Remains Strong:
- Anticipated Fed rate cuts in 2025 are boosting appetite for risk assets.
- Global trade tensions have eased, improving macro sentiment.
- U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs are on track for a 16th consecutive day of net inflows, nearing the record streak of 19 days set in mid-2024.
Santiment data reveals a powerful trend:
“Exchange Bitcoin supply is hitting historic lows. Meanwhile, BlackRock’s IBIT is buying more BTC daily than miners produce — 12,354 BTC last week alone, versus ~450 BTC mined per day.”
This supply squeeze suggests growing scarcity — a bullish structural shift.
👉 See how institutional buying is reshaping Bitcoin's supply dynamics
Bitcoin Price Drivers: What’s Next?
BTC’s short-term trajectory depends on four core factors:
- Federal Reserve Policy Signals – Hawkish tone could delay rallies; dovish hints may ignite them.
- Global Trade Developments – Escalation could boost BTC as a hedge; calm reduces urgency.
- Legislative Progress – The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBB) includes crypto tax reforms.
- ETF Flows – Consistent inflows reinforce institutional confidence.
Potential Scenarios:
- Bearish Case: Trade stability + legislative delays + Fed hawkishness + ETF outflows → BTC tests $100,000 support.
- Bullish Case: Geopolitical tension + bipartisan bill passage + rate cut signals + strong inflows → BTC retests $111,917 ATH.
FAQ: Your Questions Answered
Q: What does the SEC’s acknowledgment of Grayscale’s filing mean?
A: It means the application is formally under review — not approved yet. But it’s a necessary procedural step that increases approval odds.
Q: When will we know if an XRP ETF gets approved?
A: The final decision deadline for current applications is October 17, 2025. However, developments this week on GDLC could provide early signals.
Q: Why is the Ripple lawsuit important for an ETF?
A: If XRP is deemed a non-security (via SEC dropping its appeal), it becomes eligible for listing on regulated exchanges and inclusion in ETFs.
Q: Is Bitcoin still in a bull market?
A: Yes — strong ETF inflows, declining exchange reserves, and macro tailwinds suggest underlying strength despite short-term volatility.
Q: How do ETF inflows affect Bitcoin’s price?
A: Persistent buying from ETFs reduces available supply, creating upward price pressure — especially when demand outpaces mining output.
Q: Can XRP surpass its all-time high?
A: Technically yes — if ETF approval momentum builds and market conditions remain favorable. A break above $2.65 could open path to $3.40+.
What Investors Should Watch This July
Key catalysts to monitor:
- SEC announcement on Ripple appeal
- Final GDLC ETF decision
- Progress on U.S. crypto legislation (e.g., OBBB Act)
- Federal Reserve commentary
- Daily Bitcoin ETF flow data
These factors will shape not only short-term price action but also long-term regulatory clarity for digital assets.
Final Thoughts
July 2025 could mark a turning point for both XRP and Bitcoin, driven by regulatory evolution and institutional adoption. While Bitcoin consolidates gains through relentless ETF demand, XRP stands at the brink of a potential breakthrough — one that could redefine its market position.
Whether it's the final resolution of the Ripple case or another wave of ETF-driven accumulation, one thing is clear: the infrastructure for mainstream crypto adoption is solidifying rapidly.
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