The cryptocurrency market has long been associated with the so-called "four-year cycle," where a major bull run follows each Bitcoin halving event. However, recent market dynamics suggest that this pattern may not be as predictable as once believed. While 2024 is a halving year, many investors are questioning whether we’re truly in a bull market—or if the real surge is still on the horizon.
According to on-chain data and macroeconomic trends, the current rally may not be a full-blown bull run but rather a combination of seasonal momentum and speculative activity driven by new asset classes like inscriptions and runes. The real super bull market could be delayed until 2025 or 2026, primarily due to shifts in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy cycle.
Understanding the Current Market Structure
One of the most cited pieces of evidence suggesting we’re in a bull market comes from Glassnode’s weekly report, which shows a striking similarity between the current 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of Bitcoin’s transaction volume (Tx Volume) and the period from October 2020 to September 2021—a time when BTC surged from around $10,000 to nearly $69,000.
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At first glance, the chart appears to confirm that we’re already in the midst of a powerful bull cycle. But a closer look reveals a critical distortion: the composition of transaction volume has fundamentally changed since 2023.
The Impact of Taproot and New Asset Classes
Since the activation of the Taproot upgrade, there has been an explosion in Taproot Witness transactions, largely driven by the rise of Bitcoin inscriptions and runes. At their peak, these transactions accounted for 41.8% of total on-chain activity—a phenomenon absent during previous cycles.
This surge inflates transaction volume metrics without reflecting genuine economic demand or user adoption. In other words, much of the activity is technical and speculative rather than driven by real-world usage or investment flows.
To put it simply: high transaction volume doesn’t always mean strong market fundamentals.
Mining Fees Tell a Different Story
A more reliable indicator of network demand is miner revenue from fees. During genuine bull markets, increased demand to send Bitcoin drives up competition for block space, pushing fees higher.
Looking at historical data:
- In the 2020–2021 bull run, miner fees reached sustained highs, peaking during periods of intense market activity.
- In contrast, current fee levels—even during spikes—remain significantly lower, only slightly above bear market averages from 2022.
When you strip away the noise caused by inscription and rune mints, the base layer of transactional demand looks modest at best. This suggests that while there is interest, it hasn’t yet reached the scale seen in previous super bull markets.
Exchange Trading Volumes Show Seasonality, Not Trends
Another key metric comes from spot trading volume on centralized exchanges. From November 2022 to mid-2024, these volumes have shown clear seasonal patterns—notably higher activity in Q1 and Q4—but no sustained upward trend.
This reinforces the idea that what we’ve experienced since late 2023 is not a structural bull market but a series of seasonal rallies amplified by:
- Institutional inflows via spot Bitcoin ETFs
- Retail speculation around new token launches
- Cyclical expectations tied to the halving
In essence, the 2024 rally is more accurately described as a confluence of seasonal optimism and technological novelty, not a full-scale bull market driven by macroeconomic tailwinds.
Why the “Halving Equals Bull Market” Myth Is Flawed
The belief that “Bitcoin halving automatically triggers a bull market” stems from historical coincidence—not causation.
Bitcoin was born in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. Its four-year halving schedule has, by chance, aligned with the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy cycles:
- 2012 halving: Followed by QE-driven liquidity expansion
- 2016 halving: Occurred during post-QE recovery
- 2020 halving: Coincided with pandemic-era stimulus and ZIRP (zero interest rate policy)
Each halving occurred near the end of a tightening cycle and the start of monetary easing—exactly when risk assets tend to perform best.
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But in 2024, the Fed’s monetary policy cycle has shifted by about a year. Despite inflation cooling, interest rates remain elevated as central banks prioritize price stability. Full-scale rate cuts aren’t expected until late 2025 or early 2026.
This misalignment means that while scarcity is increasing due to reduced block rewards (post-halving), liquidity remains tight. Without ample liquidity, even reduced supply cannot drive exponential price growth.
So When Will the Real Bull Market Begin?
Given the above analysis, here’s a clearer outlook:
- 2024: A transitional year marked by seasonal rallies, ETF inflows, and technical innovation—but not a true super bull market.
2025–2026: The most likely window for a sustained, high-momentum bull run, assuming:
- The Fed begins meaningful rate cuts
- Global liquidity expands
- Institutional adoption accelerates (e.g., Ethereum ETFs, DeFi growth)
- On-chain utility matures beyond speculation
This timeline mirrors the Merwin Clock framework, where crypto markets thrive in the “recovery” phase—characterized by falling rates and rising economic confidence.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Don’t confuse activity with adoption – High transaction volume doesn’t equal strong fundamentals if driven by niche protocols or speculative minting.
- Watch macroeconomic signals closely – Fed policy remains the single biggest catalyst for the next bull run.
- Prepare for delayed gratification – The real upside may come not in 2024, but in 2025–2026.
- Diversify beyond Bitcoin – Altcoins often outperform in mature bull phases; early preparation pays off.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Is the Bitcoin halving still relevant if it doesn’t trigger an immediate bull market?
Yes. The halving reduces new supply entering the market, creating structural scarcity. While it doesn’t guarantee an instant price surge, it sets the foundation for long-term price appreciation—especially when combined with rising demand and loose monetary policy.
Q: What on-chain metrics should I watch to confirm a real bull market?
Focus on:
- Miner revenue (excluding inscription spikes)
- Exchange net outflows (indicating accumulation)
- Active addresses growth
- Long-term holder supply trends
These provide clearer signals than raw transaction volume.
Q: Can a bull market happen without Fed rate cuts?
It’s possible but unlikely at scale. Risk assets like crypto thrive on cheap capital. Without rate cuts and balance sheet expansion, sustained bullish momentum is difficult to maintain.
Q: Are inscriptions and runes harmful to Bitcoin?
Not inherently. They increase on-chain activity and developer interest. However, they can congest the network and inflate metrics. Their long-term value depends on actual utility—not just speculation.
Q: Should I sell now if we’re not in a real bull market?
Timing the market is risky. Instead of reacting to short-term narratives, focus on dollar-cost averaging and holding quality assets through cycles. The biggest gains often come in the final phase—after most have already exited.
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Final Thoughts
The idea that “halving equals bull market” is an oversimplification. While Bitcoin’s supply mechanics are predictable, human behavior and macroeconomic forces are not.
The delay in the Fed’s easing cycle has pushed the likely start of the next super bull market into 2025 or 2026. Rather than viewing this as a setback, investors should see it as an opportunity—to accumulate during transitional phases, refine strategies, and prepare for what could be one of the most powerful rallies yet.
By understanding the interplay between on-chain data, monetary policy, and market psychology, you can navigate uncertainty with confidence and position yourself for long-term success in the evolving world of digital assets.
Core Keywords: crypto bull market, Bitcoin halving, Federal Reserve cycle, on-chain data, miner fees, transaction volume, monetary policy, super bull market