The fourth Bitcoin halving, completed on April 20, 2025, has once again stirred intense debate across the crypto market. While the event historically precedes significant price movements, Bitcoin’s immediate reaction has been anything but explosive—entering a consolidation phase with prices fluctuating around $62,800 after briefly dipping to $56,500 on May 1. Despite expectations of a post-halving surge fueled by supply scarcity and the emerging "Runes" ecosystem, momentum has stalled.
Market sentiment is now sharply divided. Institutional voices offer contrasting forecasts—ranging from bullish predictions of six-figure prices to bearish warnings of a drop below $30,000. This article synthesizes key perspectives from major financial players, analysts, and industry leaders to provide a comprehensive outlook on Bitcoin’s next move.
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Bullish Outlook: The Case for Continued Growth
Despite short-term volatility, several influential institutions and investors remain firmly optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.
SkyBridge Capital: Bitcoin Could Surpass Gold in Market Cap
Anthony Scaramucci, CEO of SkyBridge Capital, reiterated his bold stance in mid-April, asserting that Bitcoin could eventually surpass gold’s $16 trillion market capitalization. He described Bitcoin as “the highest-quality asset in 5,000 years of human history,” emphasizing its scarcity and decentralized nature as key differentiators.
While acknowledging that Bitcoin still has a long way to go to match gold’s valuation, Scaramucci believes increasing regulatory clarity and global adoption will steadily close the gap. As macroeconomic uncertainty persists and trust in traditional financial systems wavers, he sees Bitcoin emerging as a preferred store of value.
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Bitwise: Strong Performance Expected Post-Halving
Just days after the halving, Bitwise Asset Management reaffirmed its bullish outlook. Researcher Ryan Rasmussen highlighted historical patterns showing that both the year before and after a halving tend to be Bitcoin’s strongest performers in its four-year cycle.
“We had a great run from 2022 lows through 2023 and early 2024,” Rasmussen noted. “I believe we’ll continue testing new highs through 2025.” The firm attributes this to reduced selling pressure from miners post-halving and growing institutional interest via spot ETFs.
Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s CIO, went further, predicting that by the time of the next halving in 2028:
- Market volatility will decline.
- Central banks may begin exploring Bitcoin holdings.
- ETF inflows will dominate investment flows.
- Bitcoin could reach $250,000.
Hunter Horsley, Bitwise CEO, also expects wealth managers to increase allocations to Bitcoin ETFs, accelerating mainstream adoption.
Jan3 CEO: $1 Million Bitcoin on the Horizon
Samson Mow, CEO of Jan3, believes the convergence of two powerful forces—the halving and surging demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs—could trigger an “Omega candle” pattern, a technical phenomenon signaling explosive upward momentum. He argues that when supply shock meets sustained institutional demand, prices could soar to $1 million.
This prediction hinges on continued approval of ETF products globally and increasing corporate treasury adoption—a trend already visible with firms like MicroStrategy and Metaplanet.
Pantera Capital: $117,000 Target by August 2025
Pantera Capital projected in early May that Bitcoin could reach $117,000 by August 2025, based on historical cycle analysis. The firm noted that pre- and post-halving rallies have shown remarkable consistency in duration—this cycle’s 515-day rebound closely mirrors past patterns.
Although Pantera later removed the public post, the underlying model remains influential among cycle-focused investors. Their data suggests that each halving cycle amplifies returns, with the current one potentially delivering unprecedented gains.
PlanB: $500K by 2028, $4M by 2032
Revisiting his famed Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model with updated data, analyst PlanB maintains that scarcity-driven valuation remains intact. He revised earlier projections slightly downward but still forecasts:
- $500,000 by 2028
- $4 million by 2032
Even with conservative adjustments, the core thesis holds: as block rewards diminish every four years, Bitcoin becomes increasingly scarce—driving long-term price appreciation.
Jack Dorsey: $1M+ by 2030
Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey echoed these sentiments in a recent interview, predicting Bitcoin could exceed $1 million by 2030. For Dorsey, however, price is secondary to the protocol’s role in enabling decentralized collaboration and financial sovereignty.
“The most exciting part isn’t the price—it’s how Bitcoin incentivizes collective effort to strengthen the network.”
Bearish Perspectives: Caution Amid Uncertainty
Not all experts share the euphoria. Some warn of deeper corrections driven by macroeconomic headwinds and structural risks.
Peter Brandt: Peak Likely In — Target $30K or Lower
Veteran trader Peter Brandt argues that Bitcoin may have already peaked at $73,835 during this bull cycle. Using technical analysis based on exponential decay patterns, he predicts a sharp reversal down to **$30,000**, possibly even lower.
He views such a pullback not as failure but as healthy correction—necessary for sustainable long-term growth.
Standard Chartered: Downside Risk to $50K–$52K
Geoffrey Kendrick, head of FX and digital asset research at Standard Chartered, noted that breaking below $60,000 reopened the path toward **$50,000–$52,000**. Key concerns include:
- Five consecutive days of outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.
- Weak investor response to Hong Kong’s launch of spot BTC and ETH ETFs.
- Over half of ETF positions currently underwater, increasing liquidation risk.
These factors suggest weakening institutional appetite—a red flag for near-term momentum.
10x Research: No New Demand Post-Halving
Crypto research firm 10x Research maintains a bearish stance, citing near-zero stablecoin inflows since the halving and declining futures leverage. They also point to DTCC’s recent decision not to grant collateral value to crypto-based ETFs as a sign of systemic skepticism.
With relative strength indicators dropping to 40%—a level seen during prior corrections—they believe a new downtrend may be forming.
Neutral View: Consolidation Before the Next Leg
Some analysts expect neither immediate breakout nor collapse—but rather extended consolidation.
Arthur Hayes: $60K–$70K Range Until August
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, believes recent monetary developments will support price stability. The Fed’s reduction in balance sheet runoff (from $95B to $60B monthly) effectively injects **$35B in liquidity per month**. Combined with U.S. Treasury bill issuance and FDIC backstops following regional bank failures (adding $6.7 trillion in contingent liabilities), Hayes sees ample liquidity cushioning downside risk.
He predicts Bitcoin bottomed around $58,600**, will reclaim $60,000 soon, and trade sideways between $60K and $70K until August**, when new catalysts could emerge.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is the significance of the Bitcoin halving?
A: Every four years, Bitcoin’s block reward is cut in half, reducing new supply. Historically, this scarcity event has preceded major bull runs due to reduced miner sell pressure and growing investor anticipation.
Q: Why are some institutions bearish despite the halving?
A: Short-term bearishness stems from ETF outflows, lack of stablecoin inflows, and macro uncertainty. Some analysts argue that without fresh demand, price gains may stall regardless of supply constraints.
Q: Can Bitcoin really reach $1 million?
A: While speculative, several models—including S2F variants and adoption curves—suggest it's possible by 2030 if institutional adoption continues and regulatory clarity improves globally.
Q: How do spot ETFs impact Bitcoin’s price?
A: Spot ETFs allow traditional investors to gain exposure without holding crypto directly. Sustained inflows boost demand; outflows signal weakening confidence—making them a key sentiment indicator.
Q: Is now a good time to buy Bitcoin?
A: Many analysts recommend dollar-cost averaging during consolidation phases. With volatility expected through mid-2025, patience and disciplined entry strategies are advised.
Q: What triggers the next major move in Bitcoin?
A: Key catalysts include U.S. Fed rate decisions, presidential election outcomes (especially pro-crypto candidates), potential ETH ETF approvals redirecting capital back to BTC, and corporate treasury purchases.
Final Takeaway: Long-Term Optimism Amid Short-Term Noise
While short-term price action remains uncertain—with forecasts ranging from $30K crashes to $1M milestones—the overarching consensus among major institutions leans bullish over the long term.
Key trends supporting this view:
- Growing corporate adoption (e.g., Metaplanet).
- Maturing regulatory frameworks.
- Integration into traditional finance via ETFs.
- Persistent macroeconomic instability favoring hard assets.
For investors, the current phase calls for vigilance and patience. As Arthur Hayes put it: “Let the dust settle.” The next major leg up may not come immediately—but when it does, being positioned early could prove invaluable.
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