The Bitcoin (BTC) market remains in a critical phase of consolidation as traders closely monitor key technical levels that could determine the next major price move. With BTC fluctuating around significant support and resistance zones, understanding the current structure—whether it leans bullish or bearish—is essential for informed trading decisions. This comprehensive analysis dives into pivotal price zones, potential breakout scenarios, and strategic entry and exit points based on technical indicators such as SNR (Supply and Resistance), Bollinger Bands (BB), daily and weekly opening prices (D/W OPEN), and OB (Order Block) regions.
Current Market Structure: Consolidation Before the Next Move
Bitcoin is currently navigating a tight range between strong support and resistance levels, indicating a period of indecision among market participants. Recent price action shows BTC oscillating near $107,000–$109,000, with repeated tests of key resistance at $108,500–$108,600 (SNR zone). This level has acted as a recurring barrier, preventing a sustained upward breakout.
Despite brief attempts to push higher—some reaching near $110,400—the price has consistently pulled back, suggesting strong supply overhead. The inability to close above this resistance signals that sellers remain active in the market. However, the fact that BTC has held above major support levels indicates underlying buying interest.
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Key Technical Levels in Focus
Several critical price zones are shaping the current narrative:
- SNR Resistance Zone: $108,500–$108,600
A well-established supply area where previous rallies stalled. A confirmed breakout above this zone with strong volume would signal bullish momentum resuming. - Daily Open (D OPEN): ~$107,100–$109,550
Acts as both dynamic support and resistance depending on price position. Holding above D OPEN favors bulls; falling below shifts bias to bearish. - Weekly Open (W OPEN): ~$108,300–$108,400
A structural anchor point. Maintaining price above W OPEN supports a bullish weekly bias. - Upper Bollinger Band (BB) Support: $105,500–$106,300
Represents a historical accumulation zone and short-term EMA confluence. This area has repeatedly served as a bounce point during corrections. - Golden Retracement (0.5 Level): ~$107,700
Midpoint of recent price swings. A retest and hold here could provide a low-risk long entry if followed by bullish confirmation. - OB- Supply Zone: $110,500–$111,300
A major target for bulls but also a high-probability area for profit-taking and reversal. First-time touches should be approached cautiously.
Bullish Scenarios: Pathways to New Highs
While the market remains range-bound, two primary bullish pathways are emerging based on technical patterns and institutional behavior.
Path A: Breakout Above D OPEN and SNR
A decisive move above $109,550 (D OPEN) accompanied by strong volume could reignite upward momentum. Traders should look for:
- A daily close above $109,550
- Follow-up strength with a bullish engulfing or momentum candle
- Retest of the breakout level ($109,550) holding as support
Targets:
- Short-term: $110,000
- Medium-term: $110,500–$111,300 (OB- zone)
Stop Loss: Below $108,500 to avoid false breakouts.
Path B: Pullback to 0.5 Fibonacci + SNR Reclaim
If BTC dips toward $107,700 (0.5 retracement)** and forms a bullish reversal pattern (e.g., hammer, engulfing), it presents a contrarian long opportunity—especially if price quickly regains the **$108,600 SNR level.
This scenario allows traders to enter at better risk-reward ratios while aligning with the broader uptrend.
Targets:
- $109,550 (D OPEN)
- $110,500 (OB- lower boundary)
Stop Loss: Below $107,500 to protect against deeper correction.
Bearish Risks: What Could Trigger a Drop?
Despite the overall positive sentiment in crypto markets, several technical red flags suggest downside risks remain.
Failure to Hold Key Support
If BTC fails to defend the upper BB zone ($105,500–$106,300) and breaks below W OPEN ($108,300)**, it may signal a shift in momentum. Further breakdown below **$107,700 could accelerate selling pressure.
Historical Supply Zones Still Active
The repeated rejection at $108,500–$111,300 suggests strong overhead supply from previous distribution phases. Without significant buying volume to absorb this supply, any rally is likely to stall.
Lower Timeframe Weakness
On shorter charts (M5/M15), lack of follow-through after minor rallies indicates weak demand. Traders should watch for "fakeouts" where price briefly spikes above resistance only to reverse sharply—a classic sign of trap setups.
Strategic Trading Plan for 2025
To navigate this complex environment, traders should adopt a flexible approach using multiple confirmation signals before entering positions.
Long Entry Conditions
✅ Price holds above D OPEN ($107,100+)
✅ Break and close above SNR ($108,600) with volume
✅ Pullback to upper BB zone ($105.5K–$106.3K) shows clear absorption
Avoid chasing entries near OB- unless there’s clear institutional participation.
Short Entry Conditions
✅ Rejection at SNR with bearish candlestick patterns (e.g., shooting star)
✅ Failure to reclaim D OPEN after test
✅ Breakdown below $107,700 with increasing selling volume
Shorts should be treated as tactical trades given the broader bull market context.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is the significance of the $108,500–$108,600 zone?
This range represents a key Supply and Resistance (SNR) level where multiple rallies have stalled. It's a confluence of previous highs and order block activity, making it a high-impact decision zone for traders.
Is Bitcoin likely to reach $120,000 in 2025?
While possible, reaching $120,000 depends on breaking through the **$111,300 OB- supply zone** with sustained volume. Until then, consolidation or sideways movement is more probable.
Should I buy BTC now or wait for a dip?
If you're risk-averse, waiting for a confirmed pullback to $105,500–$106,300 (upper BB) offers better value. Aggressive buyers may consider small entries on SNR breakouts with tight stops.
How do I confirm a trend reversal?
Look for confluence: price breaking structure + volume surge + momentum shift (RSI/MACD). A daily close beyond key levels like D/W OPEN adds validity.
What happens if BTC breaks below $105,500?
A breakdown below the upper BB support could trigger stop-loss cascades toward $103,3K–$103.9K, potentially retesting $99K–$97K if sentiment turns negative.
Can BTC sustain momentum after hitting all-time highs?
Yes—but only if volume supports new inflows and on-chain data shows accumulation by large holders. Watch exchange reserves and whale wallet movements closely.
Core Keywords
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Bollinger Bands support
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